Iowa State vs. Baylor Preview: Save Your Bets, Bring Your Tents

Since we are just coming off a trip to Las Vegas, let me tell you a story about why I will never bet money on Cyclone football.

The year was 2013. I went on a trip to Las Vegas with my close friends for a bachelor party. Having never bet on sports, it was extra exciting to be there for a college football weekend to be able to place some small bets on a handful of games. We eagerly headed to the nearest sportsbook on Friday evening to check out the betting lines and make our picks.

That weekend, Iowa State was set to play at Baylor. The Cyclones had started the season poorly, and Baylor was a ranked team with an explosive offense. Still, when we saw the line of Baylor being favored by somewhere around thirty-five points, all of the Cyclone fans in our group felt irrationally overconfident. No way does Iowa State lose by more than thirty-five  to Baylor. As we all placed our bet, one member of our group, a Hawkeye fan, saw an opportunity. “Wait, you guys are all betting on Iowa State to cover?” he asked. “Something isn’t right here. I’m taking Baylor.” 

I’m used to Hawkeye fans disparaging Iowa State. It didn’t really phase me. It should have.

The next day, my friend James and I were in one of the larger sportsbooks, which had countless televisions of all different sizes hanging on the wall. College football was everywhere, but as kickoff drew near, the Iowa State vs. Baylor game was hard to find anywhere. Finally, we found a small television in the corner set to the broadcast. James and I found spots to stand, next to a lone Baylor fan. This wasn’t exactly a game people were clamoring to find.

There were probably dozens or even hundreds of people watching games at that point. Every now and then you’d hear a simultaneous cheer and groan as a big play would happen in one of the myriad of other games being shown. Some people were winning money, some were losing. I couldn’t help but feel jealous of everyone who was cheering as we watched our game unfold.

The thirty-five-point spread in favor of Baylor, as it turns out, was laughable. I don’t remember a single thing about the game other than Baylor touchdown after Baylor touchdown. By halftime, the point spread was covered and it became quite obvious there was no reason to keep watching. I basically never quit watching at halftime, no matter how bad the game is. That day I did. It’s almost embarrassing to type, but Iowa State lost 71-7 that day. It was the type of loss that makes me appreciate the hype of this season even more.

Like I said, I never bet money on Cyclone football.

The players and coaching staffs involved in that game have moved on, but this series has produced memorable games in each of the last three years that make this year’s matchup intriguing, and fuel a little bit (maybe a lot) of dislike toward Baylor by Cyclone fans. 

In 2018, I was sitting in a bar in Green Bay, Wisconsin just outside of Lambeau Field, to watch the Iowa State vs. Baylor game. It was one of the few home games I’ve missed in the last sixteen years (besides 2020). The Cyclones were on cruise control when David Montgomery was driven out of bounds and tackled very late into the bench. Over the next few minutes, and next few plays, fights broke out that ended up with Montgomery being ejected, and kept him out for the first half in a big game at Texas the following week. At least Iowa State held on for a fairly comfortable victory.

The one that really stung was the 2019 game in Waco. There are a few unfortunate similarities between the setup to that year’s game and the setup for this year’s game. For the 2019 game, Iowa State entered with a 2-1 record (just like this year), with a loss to Iowa (just like this year). Baylor was 3-0 (just like this year).

I was in Galena, Illinois, with family. One of the fun things about a college football Saturday in a neutral area like Galena is walking around with your team gear on, like a badge of pride, a show of loyalty. You see and interact with other people who are out with friends and family, but have one eye on their team’s game, wearing team gear from schools across the Midwest. 

We ate a late lunch at the sports bar and restaurant in the main shopping area. It was well-known by my family that I wanted to post up and watch the Cyclone game. Since we had a larger group, they sat us upstairs at a long table. Everyone ordered lunch and drinks as the game began. As we wrapped up lunch, one by one everyone got up to go on their separate ways to do more shopping or just walk around the downtown area. I ordered a drink and settled in for the long haul, sitting all by myself at a table originally set for nine. 

The game was a slog as the Cyclones couldn’t get anything going offensively. As I checked Twitter, I noticed the storyline forming: On a blazing hot day in Waco, Iowa State had not gotten permission to set up their tents on the sideline, and was forced to take them down and lose the shade they provided. As the afternoon sun placed the Baylor sideline fully in the shade, the Cyclone players stood on their sideline with no protection from the sun. Common sense and any care about player safety may have dictated that Baylor should make an exception and let Iowa State put up their tents. No such exception was made. 

My mood was also a slog as I sat alone, and my temper (internally) was about as hot as the players on the field looked. The waitress checked up on me every now and again. She may have wanted to ask “are you OK?” Instead she just offered to bring me refills. 

Early in the fourth quarter, Baylor scored a touchdown to go up 20-0. I’d had enough. I no longer wanted to be sitting in a bar alone watching the Cyclones lose. I paid my tab and walked downstairs. Maybe I’ll walk back to the hotel and catch the rest of the fourth quarter in our room, I thought. As I walked toward the door…. my dad walked in. “Want to watch the rest of the game?” he asked cheerily, blissfully unaware of the score. “Uhhh, sure,” I said. I wasn’t going to turn down this nice gesture and the opportunity to sit and have a drink with my dad, even if it was upset. “I just left our table upstairs. Let’s grab another.”

This time, they put us in a room on the main floor. The room was set up primarily for tables of four. There were televisions on, but nobody seemed overly interested in the games. I positioned myself to watch the TV showing the Cyclone game. About that time, another small group walked in and sat down. “Shoot, the Cyclones are losing,” a man said. “Oh well.” It was clear he was not as emotionally invested as I was. 

The next few minutes were thrilling.

Iowa State, down 20-0, finally got things going. The sun began to set. It wasn’t quite as unforgiving on the Iowa State sideline. All of a sudden everything worked. The Cyclones scored on three straight possessions to take a 21-20 lead, capped off by a twenty-yard touchdown pass from Cyclone quarterback Brock Purdy to tight end Charlie Kolar, which caused me to audibly yell “YES!” in a way that made a few people look in my direction. The Cyclone non-superfan a few tables over noticed. “Sorry,” I said, pointing at the television. “I’m excited.” He was pleasantly surprised. I was ecstatic, having watched one of the most thrilling twelve minutes of Iowa State football I had ever seen.

I went from being distraught to believing that maybe this Cyclone team was the team of destiny. The team to come back from twenty points down on the road when everything else had gone against them. This could be the team to make something special happen.

Who needed tents anyway? 

Baylor had one last chance and marched down the field, setting themselves up for a thirty-eight-yard field goal try to win the game. In entered a kicker who had never made a field goal at the collegiate level, and who had missed a kick already that day. Come on, miss it. Please. When it counted the most, he put it right through the uprights. Baylor 23, Iowa State 21. 

I put on a brave face. “Shoot. What a great game. Can’t be upset by that comeback,” I said to my dad and my new acquaintances, wishing internally that I could be more like the casual fan who didn’t let this type of loss ruin his day. 

As we left the bar to walk back toward the hotel, the scene was much the same as earlier but felt completely different to me. I was hyper-aware that I was walking around in an Iowa State shirt, and I was sure that all the other college football fans with their Hawkeye and Gopher and Badger shirts were either pitying me or silently laughing at me. In reality, the game had just ended, and they likely had no idea the Cyclones just lost. But I knew.

In hindsight, that game was typical of how both teams’ seasons went. Baylor won close game after close game. Iowa State lost close game after close game. I think it’s fair to say I will not be able to get the 2019 game, and it’s ultimate negative impact on the season, out of my mind as I travel to Waco for Saturday’s game. 

Last year’s game didn’t exactly help. By the time the 2020 game rolled around, Baylor had a new head coach in Dave Aranda and Iowa State was in the midst of its best season in school history. Yet the Bears almost derailed Iowa State’s quest to make the Big 12 Championship. Brock Purdy threw three first-half interceptions, the last of which was a returned for a touchdown to give the Bears a 21-7 lead. It felt like the Iowa State of old when the Cyclones fumbled a punt return early in the third quarter. With a 21-10 lead, the Bears had a chance to score another touchdown and really deflate the Cyclones’ hopes. In another sign of many that these Cyclones were different, Iowa State held Baylor to a field goal and then, led by a rejuvenated Purdy, scored the next four touchdowns to take a 38-24 lead. Linebacker Mike Rose intercepted a pass in the endzone in the final minute to preserve a 38-31 victory.

Of the four games Iowa State has played so far this season, in some ways this one has the least hype around it. The UNI game was the first in front of a full stadium since 2019. The Iowa game brought out the emotions that can only be caused by a rivalry. The trip to Las Vegas was a giant party. This weekend’s game, though, is probably the most important so far. This is game one of the Big 12 season, and therefore the first game that counts toward getting back to the Big 12 Championship. After a rollercoaster in the first three weeks, this game will provide its own unique challenge that Iowa State hasn’t faced in nearly two seasons: A true road game in a full stadium where the crowd will be heavily against the Cyclones. 

It’s easy to feel good about Iowa State’s chances. The team played loose and seemed to have fun at UNLV, and a veteran group like this one might respond well to a true road environment in a way younger teams could struggle with. Unlike the game at Baylor in 2013, this year’s betting line is slightly in favor of the Cyclones. Unlike the game at Baylor in 2019, Iowa State players should have tents to block the sun this year. 

Still, this does not feel like the gimme I was hoping it would be when the schedule came out. Baylor is coming off a 2-7 season, but has started strong at 3-0 this year (albeit against easy competition.) The Bears proved last year they were capable of winning if Iowa State doesn’t bring it’s “A” game from the get-go. 

The nature of a college football game is that the sample size — twelve games — is so small that one or two games can really swing a season. This one feels like a swing game. There’s still a nervousness from the start of the season that couldn’t be fully erased in a game against a poor UNLV team. A win, and the hype will start to build back up. A loss, and this team will have a lot of work to salvage its goal of getting back to the Big 12 Championship.

Simply put, for Iowa State to have the special season we are still hoping for, it has to find a way to win these types of games. If I was a betting man, I would put money on it.